Mortgage Arrears at a 12-Year High, Jobs That Don't Add Up, and What It All Means If You're Buying or Selling in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, or Markham Right Now

There's a version of the current headlines that sounds almost reassuring. GDP went up. Jobs were added. The economy didn't fall off a cliff. But when I sit down with clients — whether they're upsizing in Woodbridge, thinking about listing in Richmond Hill, or trying to time a first purchase in Markham — I owe them more than the headline. I owe them the full picture. And right now, the full picture is more complicated than most people realize.

The Economy Looks Better Than It Is — And That Matters for Confidence

Canadian GDP rebounded in April, which sounds like good news. But when you look at what actually drove that growth, it was largely oil output and government spending — two factors that economists are already flagging as temporary. This wasn't broad-based economic momentum. It was a short burst with structural cracks underneath it.

The jobs numbers tell a similar story. Yes, employment rose in April — but according to BMO's analysis of Statistics Canada's payroll data, a significant portion of those gains came from existing workers taking on second jobs. That's not a sign of a thriving labour market. That's a sign of households under financial pressure, stretching to cover costs that one income no longer handles comfortably.

For my clients in the north GTA, this matters because consumer confidence is one of the invisible engines of the real estate market. When people feel financially secure, they make moves — they upsize, they list, they buy. When they feel stretched, they wait. Right now, a lot of people are quietly waiting, even if the headline numbers suggest otherwise. I'm seeing it in conversations. I'm seeing it in how long some properties are sitting. The sentiment on the ground doesn't match the optimism in the press release.

Mortgage Arrears Are at a 12-Year High — This Is the Number You Should Be Watching

This is the data point I keep coming back to, and I think it deserves more attention than it's getting in casual conversation. According to the Canadian Bankers Association, the mortgage arrears rate — meaning mortgages at least 90 days past due — hit its highest level for the month of April in 12 years. It has nearly doubled since September 2022. The gains that banks made during the 2020 boom have effectively been wiped out from an arrears perspective.

Let me put that in plain terms: a growing number of Canadian homeowners are falling behind on their mortgages. These aren't subprime borrowers from another era. Many of these are people who bought at reasonable prices with reasonable incomes, but who have been ground down by two-plus years of elevated carrying costs, higher renewals, and the kind of inflation stress that the jobs data quietly confirms.

What does this mean for the north GTA specifically? A few things. First, we may see more motivated sellers entering the market — not because they want to sell, but because they need to. That creates opportunities for buyers who are financially positioned and working with someone who knows how to identify and move on those situations quickly and discreetly. Second, it reinforces why I counsel every buyer I work with to stress-test their numbers conservatively. The people in arrears today largely didn't plan to be there. Life, rates, and timing conspired against them. The best protection is a purchase that gives you breathing room, not one that requires everything to go perfectly.

Pre-Construction Promises and the Risk of Listening to the Wrong Voice

Something else catching my attention is the way developers are still actively marketing pre-construction and new condo product — including, apparently, to real estate brokers as a primary audience, with incentives and campaigns designed to move units through the agent channel. In a market where pre-construction has faced serious headwinds and some buyers are sitting on assignments they can't close profitably, the fact that developers are getting creative with their sales strategies is worth noting.

I'm not here to broadly condemn pre-construction — there are situations where it makes sense. But I am here to say that when a sales strategy is built around incentivizing intermediaries rather than demonstrating end-user value, buyers need to ask hard questions. What are the carrying costs at today's rates? What does the resale market actually look like in that submarket at projected delivery? What happens if you need to exit before closing?

For buyers in Vaughan, Aurora, or King City who are considering new builds or pre-construction townhomes, I always want to walk through those questions together before any commitment is made. The north GTA low-rise and semi-detached market has different dynamics than the downtown condo world, and the analysis has to reflect that.

What Smart Buyers and Sellers Should Do Right Now

Here's my honest read of the market heading into the summer: this is a moment that rewards patience and preparation in equal measure, but not paralysis.

For sellers, the window of opportunity is real but selective. Well-priced, well-presented homes in established north GTA neighbourhoods are still moving — but the days of pricing aspirationally and waiting for the market to catch up are behind us for now. Precision matters more than it has in years. That means understanding your specific street, your specific product type, and the specific buyers who are active right now. Broad market averages won't tell you what your home on that particular court in Thornhill is worth today. I will.

For buyers, the combination of softening seller confidence, rising arrears, and an economy that's less robust than the headlines suggest means there is genuine negotiating leverage available — if you're working with someone who knows where to find it and how to use it without burning the deal. Rates have moved, affordability is still challenged, but motivated sellers are real, and so is the long-term value of well-located freehold property in the north GTA.

The noise in the market right now is loud. My job is to help you hear past it.

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If you're thinking about making a move in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham, Aurora, King City, or the surrounding areas — whether that's weeks away or months away — I'd genuinely welcome the conversation. No pressure, no pitch. Just a straight talk about what the market looks like for your specific situation. Reach out to me directly and let's connect.