Affordability Is Improving — But Don't Be Fooled: What the Latest Data Really Means for North GTA Buyers and Sellers

There's a phrase I find myself using a lot lately with clients: *technically better is not the same as actually good*. That's the most honest way I can describe the current state of the Canadian housing market — and more specifically, what it means for the people I work with every day in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham, Aurora, King City, and the surrounding communities.

The headlines are coming fast, and they're pulling in different directions. Affordability is improving. Insolvencies are surging. Young people are earning less than their parents did decades ago. And July's market data shows we're sitting in that familiar quiet stretch between the spring frenzy and the fall reset. If you're trying to make a major real estate decision right now, I want to help you cut through the noise.

Affordability Is Improving — But the Bar Was Set Underground

National Bank Financial recently released data showing that Canadian housing affordability has improved for a record-long streak. On the surface, that sounds encouraging. But when you pull back and look at the full picture, it's a number that demands context: buying a typical home in Canada still requires a household income nearly *double* the national median. We're talking about a quarter-million dollars or more in qualifying income for an average home.

In the north GTA, that reality is felt acutely. Yes, conditions have eased slightly from their worst point. Rates have come down from their peak. Sellers who were holding firm on 2022 pricing have, in many cases, recalibrated. But "more affordable than the worst affordability crisis in a generation" is a very low standard to celebrate.

What this means practically for buyers in my market: don't wait for the headlines to tell you affordability has been "solved" — because that moment isn't coming anytime soon. The window that exists right now, where competition is softer and negotiating room exists that simply wasn't there two years ago, is real and worth taking seriously. Particularly for move-up buyers in communities like Aurora or King City, where the detached market has more flexibility than it did at peak.

A Troubling Undercurrent: Insolvencies, Debt, and the Generational Divide

Here's where I want to be candid with you, because I think some of what's being quietly downplayed in the financial press deserves attention.

Insolvency filings across Canada have been surging. Some bank analysts have tried to dismiss this by pointing to population growth as context — but that framing doesn't hold up under scrutiny. The underlying stress in Canadian household finances is real, and it's showing up in ways that matter to the real estate market.

At the same time, Statistics Canada data reveals something that I think explains a lot about what I see in my day-to-day work: young adults in Canada today are earning less — in real, inflation-adjusted terms — than young adults did 50 years ago. Meanwhile, senior incomes have grown. This isn't a small gap. It's a structural shift that explains why so many of the first-time buyers I work with in Vaughan and Markham are doing so with significant family help, and why the move-up market — driven by older, more equity-rich homeowners — is behaving differently than the entry-level market.

There's also the question of foreign investment, which has surged recently and been framed by some as a sign of confidence in Canada. A closer look at the composition of that investment tells a more sobering story: it's weighted toward debt instruments, not equity investment in Canadian companies or productive assets. That's not a vote of long-term confidence — it's capital seeking yield in an environment of uncertainty.

For sellers in my market: this backdrop matters. Buyers are more financially stretched than they appear. Financing conditions can shift. Pricing strategy has to reflect the real purchasing power in the room, not the pricing power of three years ago.

July's Quiet Market: Reading the Space Between

July TRREB data confirmed what most of us in the industry already felt on the ground: this is the quiet stretch. The space between the spring market and the fall market is traditionally slow, and 2025 has been no exception. Sales volumes are softer, days on market are longer, and the sense of urgency that characterized certain pockets of the spring has faded.

I actually think this is one of the most useful times of year to have honest conversations with clients. Without the pressure of a heated multiple-offer environment, we can look at properties more carefully, negotiate more thoughtfully, and make decisions that are grounded rather than reactive.

For buyers who were burned out or outbid in the spring, or who stepped back because the conditions felt chaotic — now is the time to re-engage. Inventory is available. Sellers who listed in the spring and didn't sell are often more motivated. And the fall market, which typically picks up in September, will bring renewed competition. The window before that happens is shorter than it feels.

For sellers considering a fall listing: preparation needs to start now. The buyers who will be active in September are doing their research today. Your online presence, your pricing strategy, and your positioning need to be ready before the market wakes up — not after.

What I'm Telling My Clients Right Now

The honest summary of everything I've outlined above is this: the market is in a complicated, transitional moment. Affordability has technically improved, but remains genuinely difficult. Financial stress is building in parts of the buyer pool that aren't always visible. The generational divide in purchasing power is reshaping who buys what, and where. And right now, in the quiet of July and early August, there is a window — for buyers and sellers alike — that won't last indefinitely.

I've worked in this market long enough to know that the clients who make the best decisions aren't the ones who wait for certainty. They're the ones who understand the conditions clearly, have a trusted advisor in their corner, and move with intention.

If you're weighing a decision in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham, Aurora, King City, or anywhere in the north GTA — whether you're buying, selling, or simply trying to make sense of what's happening — I'd genuinely welcome the conversation. Reach out directly. No pressure, no pitch. Just an honest discussion about where you stand and what the market looks like for your specific situation.

*— David Azizi, Sales Representative, RE/MAX Your Community Realty*